Here’s a reblog of my article of 9/25/2013 posted on WUWT. I’ll follow up here with discussions of the method and follow on analysis
Guest essay by Jeffery S. Patterson
My last post on this site, examined the hypothesis that the climate is dominated by natural, harmonically related periodicities. As they say in the business, the critics were not kind. Some of the criticisms were due to a misunderstanding of the methodology and others stemmed from an under appreciation for the tentativeness of the conclusions, especially with respect to forecasting. With respect to the sparseness of the stochastic analysis, the critics were well founded. This lack of rigor is why it was submitted as a blog post and not a journal paper. Perhaps it served to spark someone’s interest who can do the uncertainty analysis properly, but I have a day job.
One of the commentators suggested I repeat the exercise using a technique called Singular Spectrum Analysis which I have done in a series of posts starting here. In this post, I…
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